Even if Lithuania wins all their remaining matches, their chances of finishing in the top two are extremely slim. That leaves them with little motivation to push for a victory.

For Poland, however, the situation is completely different. They are still in the race for first place alongside Finland and the Netherlands, and this match, along with their upcoming game against Malta, represents one of their easier opportunities to collect crucial points.

In their previous meeting, Poland won 1-0 at home, clearly dominating the game. They created more chances, posting a 1.73 xG compared to Lithuania’s 0.66, and registered 24 shots to Lithuania’s 8.