Because this is a cup final, we opt for the safest selection: Barcelona to lift the trophy.

Both teams come into this matchup unbeaten in their last five matches, but Barcelona hold a clear edge when the key factors are examined more closely. The primary difference lies in defensive stability. Barcelona have significantly improved at the back, keeping five consecutive clean sheets, while Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in four of their last five matches.

Squad availability also favors Barcelona. They arrive with a full squad to choose from and no new injury concerns, whereas Real Madrid remain without two crucial players Kylian Mbappé (doubtful) and Éder Militão absences that inevitably weaken their overall balance.

The recent head-to-head record further strengthens Barcelona’s case. In the last five meetings between the two sides, Barcelona have recorded three wins, one draw, and just one defeat. Notably, two of those encounters came in cup competitions: a dominant 5-2 victory in the Super Cup and a dramatic 3-2 extra-time win after a draw in regular time.